Bitcoin in All-Time High (ATH) Zone: Are Price Cycles Still Valid?
Bitcoin in All-Time High (ATH) Zone: Are Price Cycles Still Valid?
Since 2024, Bitcoin’s charts have displayed a remarkable trend, making its future movements more complex to understand. In this analysis, we examine Bitcoin’s current status in its All-Time High (ATH) zone. By utilizing key indicators and historical patterns, we pose the question: Is Bitcoin still following its established price cycles, or are we witnessing the beginning of new patterns?
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Current Status in the ATH Zone
The numbers within the gray boxes on the charts indicate the number of days the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 50) has been above or below the price. The blue line, meanwhile, illustrates the number of days from a cycle’s peak to its trough and back to its peak. We have now surpassed the “peak-trough” days required to reach the ATH in this current cycle, entering a region where the number of SMA 50 days has also reached its ATH. The predicted date for this ATH is October 13th.
We observe striking similarities between price behavior and the SMA 50 during the 2013-2017 cycle. Furthermore, fractal price charts until February of this year showed significant resemblances, closely mirroring past patterns. For the latest news and in-depth crypto market analysis, you can visit the Sepordex news section.
The Challenge of Long-Term Resistance and the “Blue Arc”
The primary reason for the price trend flattening since February is the long-term overhead resistance. This line has consistently rejected Bitcoin’s price every time it approached its historical high. Previous posts have thoroughly explained this phenomenon, identifying it with the “blue arc.”
This “blue arc” represents the critical point we must overcome. It has kept the cryptocurrency price constrained within this cycle. A closer look at the charts reveals that the SMA 50 forms a strong support line. Should the price pull back, the SMA 50 currently sits around $103,000.
Technical Indicator Analysis: MACD and RSI
The MACD indicator currently sits slightly below the present region but is in an area where the price has previously retreated. This does not necessarily mean the price will fall from here, although on lower timeframes, the MACD has risen into an “overbought” zone.
However, as the 4-hour chart demonstrates, MACD is now declining from the overbought region, yet the price has reached a new peak, signaling divergence in the market. One potential sign for a price correction is the RSI indicator, which remains in the overbought region on the daily chart. Yet, it’s crucial to understand that RSI can fluctuate in high or low ranges and doesn’t always signify a trend reversal in Bitcoin market trends.
Have Bitcoin’s Cyclical Patterns Changed?
If we are still within a standard Bitcoin price cycle, we should anticipate the onset of a bear market in the coming weeks. However, we have not yet observed a clear “peak” pattern or significant profit-taking. Until this occurs, it appears that for several reasons, the historical market cycles may have broken.
For instance, the MVRV Z-Score has not even surpassed levels seen in previous bull runs. As a precaution, however, we must pay attention to the dotted orange line that originates from the November 2021 ATH. We have already crossed this level in this run, but we still have room to retest it. For comprehensive education and detailed reports, explore the education and analysis section on Sepordex.
The Need for Another Surge and the Start of New Cycles
The main reason we feel the situation is different is the “blue arc” I previously mentioned. We must break above it and sustain our position above it. Currently, we are too close to this line, and a bear market would push us back below this very strong Bitcoin resistance.
We need another surge in price to create enough space to remain above this level, even when Bitcoin corrects. Observe the three Fibonacci extensions on the final chart. We have only just crossed level 6. We must climb sufficiently higher so that it acts as support upon retesting. Fibonacci extension 9 is positioned around $180,000.
It appears that new market cycles are beginning. For more news and detailed analysis, you can visit the Sepordex source.
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