Bulls Need a Strong Breakout of the September 17th Level: Market Analysis and Upward Trend
Bulls Need a Strong Breakout of the September 17th Level: Market Analysis and Upward Trend
The market always represents a battleground between bulls (buyers) and bears (sellers), with key levels marking critical turning points in this struggle. In our recent report, we highlighted the significance of the September 17th level and the market’s reaction to it. Now, traders are closely monitoring market performance to see if the bulls can consolidate their upward trend and overcome the impending resistances.
The Battle Between Bulls and Bears in the Market
Wednesday, October 8th, saw a large bullish candle close in its upper half, featuring a prominent upper shadow. This candle indicated significant buying pressure, yet the market closed slightly below the September 17th high. In previous reports, we emphasized that traders must observe whether bulls can sustain their follow-through buying above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA 20). The market moved higher to test the September 17th high but could not decisively achieve a strong breakout.
Bulls’ Perspective: Hope for an Upward Trend
Bulls view the recent move (September 23rd) as a two-legged deep correction or pullback. They anticipate the market will rebound from a “double bottom bullish flag” pattern (formed on August 29th and September 23rd), as well as a larger “double bottom bullish flag” (formed on August 4th and September 23rd). Their primary desire is for this pullback to lack follow-through selling and establish a higher low, which it has done so far. Bulls aim to retest the August high, even if this move only creates a lower high. This movement is currently underway. To increase the chances of testing the August high, they must achieve a strong breakout above the September 17th high.
Bears’ Perspective: Resistance to the Rally
Bears experienced a deep pullback and a break within a tight trading range (September 23rd), but this move failed to generate sustained follow-through selling. They also interpret the current movement as a pullback and expect the September 17th high to act as a significant market resistance. Bears are looking for a reversal from a “large double top bearish flag” (formed on September 17th and October 8th) and a main trend reversal with a lower high. To demonstrate they have regained market control, they must create strong bearish candles and shift trading volume in their favor.
Market Influencing Factors: A Look at the Data
Alongside technical analysis, fundamental factors also influence the market. Production is anticipated to decrease in October. However, preliminary SPPOMA data indicates a 12% increase in output during the first five days of the month. On the other hand, refinery demand for purchases remains robust, which could contribute to market support. Exports in the first five days of October have also declined. These data points can affect overall market sentiment and the relative strength of the bulls and bears.
Future Outlook: What to Expect?
For today, Thursday, October 9th, traders are closely observing whether the bulls can continue their follow-through buying above the September 17th level. Or will the market stall around this September 17th level, allowing the bears to seize control? The answer to this question will determine the short-term upward trend of the market and indicate whether we are moving towards a stronger price rally or not. This moment is crucial for confirming a sustained bullish momentum and a true resistance breach, potentially leading to a significant market surge and further upward movement.
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