What is the overall status of the Bitcoin trend currently, and where is its bullish target zone?

Bitcoin's bullish trend remains intact, as no weekly close below the 50-week moving average has been observed. Bitcoin has rebounded from the 0.382 level of the current range and a significant volume support area. The bullish target zone for this trend extends between $127,000 and $153,000.

What are Bitcoin's key support areas in short-term and intraday timeframes, and what opportunities do they create?

In the short term, Bitcoin is below the Point of Control, and the next major support is in the Trend Reversal Zone, where VAL also acts as a support layer. In the intraday timeframe, we are in a local volume support area. If this area is lost, a move towards the Trend Reversal Zone is expected, which, due to its overlap with a secondary structure's target area and volume support via the Point of Control, represents a long-term buying opportunity.

What are the Federal Reserve's expectations for the economic situation at the FOMC meeting, and what impact could it have on markets?

The Federal Reserve expects positive economic growth (with GDPNowcast at 3.9 percent) and balanced inflation. Liquidity is expanding, and credit spreads are near cyclical lows. These factors point to a 'Goldilocks scenario' where the Federal Reserve can cut rates. A potential halt to the Quantitative Tightening (QT) program could lead to a sharp market increase, while interest rate cuts are already priced in.

Why is today's FOMC meeting 'not the most important FOMC of our lives' for the markets, and what should be the main focus?

This FOMC meeting is 'not the most important FOMC of our lives' because interest rate cuts are 100% priced in. Therefore, the main focus should be on whether the Federal Reserve changes its balance sheet policy (Quantitative Tightening or QT) and also on carefully listening to the forward guidance from Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair. A change in balance sheet policy could have a significant impact on the markets.

Comprehensive Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom-Up Analysis and its Link to the FOMC Meeting

In this article, we first delve into Bitcoin (CRYPTOCAP:BTC) charts, then examine today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and its potential effects on Bitcoin price. This bottom-up analysis offers deep insights into the current state of the crypto market.

The Big Picture: Current Bitcoin Status

Bitcoin’s bullish trend remains intact, as we have not experienced any weekly close below the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin has rebounded from the 0.382 level of its current range and a significant volume support area formed over the past two years. As long as we remain above these levels, everything still looks bullish for BTC. Our target zone for this uptrend has not yet been realized; this area spans between $127,000 and $153,000. Of course, overshoots are always possible, potentially impacting the overall crypto market outlook.

The Smaller Picture: Short-Term Trends

We are still below the Point of Control, as we saw a rejection from it two days ago. A smaller sequence has activated that could push us towards new All-Time Highs (ATHs). The next major support lies in the Trend Reversal Zone, where our VAL also acts as another layer of support. This will be a key area for Bitcoin’s price action!

Intraday Timeframe: Trading Opportunities

Currently, we are in a local volume support area. If we lose this area, we will likely move towards the Trend Reversal Zone, where we also have an intraday target area. This would represent a long-term buying opportunity for me, as we observe the following overlaps in this region:

Trend Reversal Zone
Target area of a secondary structure
Volume support via the Point of Control

If we fail to hold this area, I expect Bitcoin to decline towards the VAL at $108,800; this could also mean more volatility over the coming week. Looking closer, we see that in the smallest timeframes, we have rebounded from the last Trend Reversal Zone. If we move above the recent high, I anticipate continuation of the trend rather than a break towards my buying zone, signaling a strong crypto investment strategy.

Bitcoin’s Connection to the FOMC Meeting

Let’s now discuss the current economic situation and what we can expect from today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Overall economic growth remains strongly positive. The latest GDP report exceeded expectations, and the GDPNowcast currently stands at 3.9 percent. Inflation has also remained balanced, as seen in the latest report, so there are no major concerns in this regard. Inflation expectations have decreased over the past month; this could put pressure on markets if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates quickly enough, but we do not see such a situation currently. Monitoring inflation remains key at this stage for the economic outlook.

The long-term segment of the yield curve remains range-bound but has slightly decreased, showing no major inflationary risks. Liquidity is expanding, and credit spreads are near cyclical lows, which has fueled current price increases. This economic outlook is crucial for the crypto market, contributing to the Goldilocks scenario.

Growth ← Positive
Inflation ← Balanced
Liquidity ← Expanding

The Federal Reserve stated in its last meeting that it expects inflation to remain balanced and economic growth to increase by year-end – and they cut rates in such an environment. The sum of these factors brings us closer to a “Goldilocks scenario.” Of course, this situation will not last forever! My expectations for today’s FOMC meeting are, as usual: this is not the most important FOMC of our lives!

I think there is a moderate probability that the Federal Reserve will halt its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, which could lead to a sharp market rally. A rate cut is 100% priced in, so now we must focus on whether they change their balance sheet policy and pay close attention to Powell’s forward guidance from Jerome Powell.

Conclusion of Analysis

We remain bullish in both the macro and micro pictures. A single news event could trigger an end-of-year rally – or it could initiate another liquidation cascade, as we saw on October 10th. However, if Bitcoin reaches my buying zone, I intend to open a long position. For more related news headlines and analysis reports and training, please visit our website.

Have good trades and stay safe!