Why the ‘Big Bitcoin Crash’ Prediction Still Holds True
Why the ‘Big Bitcoin Crash’ Prediction Still Holds True
Dear traders, happy Monday!
After re-examining the latest data, my perspective remains unchanged, reinforcing a bearish Bitcoin forecast. The underlying structure of the Bitcoin market still appears weak, setting the stage for a significant Bitcoin crash and a strong downward movement, potentially signaling a broader crypto market downturn.
Leverage-Driven Structure: The Main Factor Behind Recent Upside
The upward trend and price breakout on September 25th seemed impressive, but this movement was primarily built on leverage rather than genuine spot demand. This is one of the key indicators in our technical analysis of Bitcoin, pointing towards a potential Bitcoin crash.
- Stablecoin Open Interest (OI) (cumulative) increased from 257K to 285K contracts (10.9%+). This indicates new leveraged positions entering through Perpetuals, not actual buyers, highlighting the role of leveraged trading.
- Coin-based Open Interest (OI) decreased from $7.58 billion to $7.29 billion during this breakout, signaling the closing of short positions. However, it has now slightly increased again at current prices, meaning new coin-based positions are opening near the highs, likely short positions fading the upside strength.
Absence of Genuine Spot Demand in the Bitcoin Market
The Spot CVD index moved from -18.38K to -16.44K (approximately 10.5%+), while futures OI increased by roughly the same amount. This tells you everything: the bullish breakout was driven by futures leverage, not actual spot buying. This indicates that the future of Bitcoin hinges on genuine spot demand.
Everyone is “renting a Ferrari” (long perpetual positions), but no one is truly “buying one” (spot Bitcoin). As soon as the renting stops, the cars disappear, and prices decline. This situation is not healthy for a leveraged market.
Collapse of Long-to-Short Ratio: A Sign of Market Reversal
On September 25th, the cumulative Long-to-Short Ratio (Binance + Bybit) stood at 2.05, meaning twice as many long positions as short positions. Today, this ratio is around 1.02, even with higher prices.
- Initial long positions opened during the bullish breakout have either closed or liquidated.
- New traders entering the Bitcoin market are predominantly opening short positions.
- Open Interest (OI) continues to rise, indicating new short positions, not an exit from liquidation.
- The Stablecoin-perp CVD index is still climbing, meaning buyers are pushing prices up, but new short liquidity meets every upward move.
This is a classic case of leveraged buyer pressure in the crypto market, while smarter investors are retreating.
Why We Still Expect a Bitcoin Crash
This situation looks more like distribution than accumulation. These factors strongly point towards a Bitcoin price drop:
- Perpetual traders drive the movement.
- Spot buyers have not yet appeared, indicating weak spot demand.
- Short positions are increasing near price highs.
This is not a healthy uptrend. It is a heavy, saturated market waiting for buying demand to dry up. When this happens, the unwinding will likely be swift as leveraged positions are forced to exit.
Consider it like a rubber band. The more it stretches by leverage and the absence of real demand, the harder it snaps back when buying power runs out.
Key Findings Summary (TL;DR)
- Stablecoin OI +10.9% → Leverage-driven movement, confirming active leveraged trading.
- Coin OI decreased, then slightly increased → Shorts covered, new shorts forming near highs.
- Spot CVD flat → Absence of real buyers and genuine spot demand.
- Long-to-Short Ratio 2.05 → 1.02 → Longs exiting, shorts entering.
The upward movement was built on leverage, not ownership. Spot demand remains unconfirmed, and short positions are increasing against the upward momentum, supporting our Bitcoin price prediction.
Short-Term Outlook
There is a possibility that during Regular Trading Hours (RTH), we might see another upward move towards the 126K region to sweep the weekend highs before the trend reverses. If this occurs while Spot CVD remains flat and OI continues to increase, it will likely be the final liquidity grab before a larger downward movement.
Until Spot CVD turns positive and Open Interest (OI) stabilizes, my view remains unchanged: Bitcoin will experience a decline, possibly leading to a major digital currency fall. For a more detailed examination of the order flow data used in this BTC analysis, you can refer to the news source.
Comments